What moves your costs, your transit times and your cargo today.

Good morning. Risk in the Middle East is no longer limited to route diversions: it is affecting crude costs, tanker availability and air cargo capacity. Container volumes are rising, but not necessarily service quality, while new port capacity still needs to demonstrate operational continuity.

THE DAY IN 30 SECONDS

• Clarksons puts average global VLCC earnings at $805,000 per day, while the Gulf-China route is approaching $1.4 million.
• DHT has fixed half of its fourth-quarter spot days at $509,100 per day, up 204%.
• OOCL increased quarterly revenue by 45.1% as Asia-Europe volumes rose 15.4% year on year.
• Hambantota has exceeded one million cumulative TEU and is preparing $108 million of equipment for February 2027.
• Riyadh airport remains closed while authorities inspect facilities handling around 700 daily flights.
• Heathrow increased September cargo volumes by 5% year on year despite weaker Middle East traffic.
• Croatia reports waits of up to four hours and keeps several border crossings closed or restricted for freight.
• France will provide capital to Eramet and become its largest shareholder to strengthen Europe’s critical-metals supply.

📊 FREIGHT RATES AND MARKET SIGNALS

Gulf-China VLCC freight approaches $1.4 million

The figure: $805,000 per day in average global VLCC freight earnings and around $1.4 million per day between the Gulf and China.

Why it matters: Higher freight costs are already changing the crude origins selected by Asian refiners and increasing logistics costs for fuels, chemicals and energy-intensive manufactured goods. Under CIF and CFR, the seller arranges transport but is likely to incorporate the cost into the price; under FOB, the buyer is directly exposed to the freight market. Energy adjustment clauses and quotation validity periods therefore become more significant.

• Clarksons estimates that transport from the US Gulf to China adds $37.50 per barrel to delivered costs.
• About 10 million barrels per day are leaving through Hormuz, compared with an average of 15 million during 2025.
• The consultancy estimates that the reorganisation of flows is increasing effective tanker demand by more than 13%.

What to watch: A reduction in ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman would remove further capacity from the market.

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DHT fixes half its spot capacity at $509,100

DHT Holdings says it has fixed approximately 50% of its available spot days for the fourth quarter at an average of $509,100 per day, calculated discharge to discharge. The figure is 204% above the spot revenue earned by its VLCC fleet in the third quarter.

Why it matters: This is not a broker estimate but contracted business already secured by a shipowner, confirming that the cost increase is reaching physical operations. Buyers sourcing FOB products linked to Gulf crude face a market in which ocean freight quotations may require very short validity periods; under CIF or CFR, the agreed price may need to establish whether subsequent surcharges are permitted.

What to watch: DHT has six time-charter contracts expiring during the first quarter of 2027 that could return to the spot market.

Source