What moves your costs, your transit times and your cargo today.

Good morning. Operational risk outweighs tariff risk today: the Gulf of Mexico is forcing changes to sailings, while northern Europe has avoided a strike but remains constrained by congestion and low water levels. The most concrete development for future costs is in customs, where the Commission has set out how it plans to collect the new charge on distance sales.

THE DAY IN 30 SECONDS

• Mobile will suspend vessel operations at noon today and close its terminals at the end of the day because of Isaias.
• The Commission plans to introduce a customs charge of 2 euros per distance-sold item from 1 November.
• German dockworkers have accepted a 3.4% pay increase, but Bremerhaven yard occupancy remains at 90%.
• Hapag-Lloyd will charge up to $1,000 per dry container for 30 days from the east coast of South America.
• The air cargo spot rate reached $3.10 per kilogram in September, while shippers are reducing contract duration.
• Germany has blocked Cosco’s acquisition of 80% of Zippel, arguing that it would increase European logistics dependencies.
• A sanctioned 22-year-old tanker is sailing to South Korea through the Northern Sea Route late in the season.
• Traffic through the Strait of Magellan rose more than 70% year on year in August and September as cargo was diverted from Panama.
• Trade between the United States and Mexico reached $94.29 billion in August, up 26.75% year on year.

⚖️ TARIFFS AND TRADE POLICY

Germany blocks Cosco’s acquisition of 80% of Zippel

The German government has prohibited Chinese state-owned shipping company Cosco from acquiring 80% of Zippel, a Hamburg-based road, rail and inland waterway transport operator. Berlin argues that the transaction would have increased dependencies and put the resilience of German and EU supply chains at risk.

Why it matters: The decision does not currently alter rates or services, but it confirms that control over inland logistics operators is being assessed as an economic security issue. Public-authorisation risk is therefore becoming a relevant factor in the timetable for acquisitions, mergers and long-term contracts linked to European infrastructure.

What to watch: A possible response from Cosco and whether other member states tighten their reviews of Chinese logistics investments.

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🌍 REGULATION AND COMPLIANCE

Sanctioned tanker enters the Arctic route late in the season

The Dakar, a 22-year-old product tanker sanctioned by the EU in July, is sailing to South Korea through the Northern Sea Route. The voyage is taking place in October, when ice conditions deteriorate, and forms part of an increase in older vessels linked to Russian trade in the Arctic: Bellona identified 50 tankers in the shadow fleet up to mid-September, compared with 38 during the whole 2025 season.

Why it matters: In sale and purchase, chartering, insurance, financing and maritime services, the risk is not limited to the cargo. Vessel history, flag changes and inclusion on sanctions lists also matter. Due diligence on counterparties and cargo linked to these supply chains is becoming increasingly significant.

What to watch: Ice conditions and any request for assistance that exposes the operational limitations of these vessels.

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🚪 CUSTOMS

EU prepares a 2-euro customs charge per item

The figure: 2 euros per item sold at a distance and imported into the EU, with implementation planned from 1 November 2026

Why it matters: The charge will be added to the temporary 3-euro duty already levied on certain items in consignments of up to 150 euros. It is not limited to those consignments: the handling charge will also cover items in distance sales above 150 euros and will not be refunded when goods are returned. Under DDP, it will initially be borne by the seller; under DAP, it will fall on the buyer or importer unless the platform or carrier incorporates it into its rate. Pricing, return terms and customs guarantees will need to reflect the 1 November deadline.

• The Commission has published a 44-page guide dated 5 October, while clarifying that it is not legally binding.
• The charge will be fixed rather than ad valorem and will apply per item, regardless of value.
• The delegated act setting the amount remains subject to scrutiny, so the Commission presents 1 November as the planned date.

What to watch: Final approval of the delegated act and national instructions for declarants, platforms, postal operators and carriers.

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📊 FREIGHT RATES AND MARKET SIGNALS