What moves your costs, your transit times and your cargo today.

Good morning. Costs are rising again before demand justifies them: ocean and air surcharges are emerging while capacity remains uneven. The Arctic trial shortens transit times, but remains far from offering a stable commercial alternative to Suez.

THE DAY IN 30 SECONDS

• Maersk will apply a 250-dollar PSS from 1 December on shipments from Spain to the United States and Canada.
• Mexico expects a US response before year-end on the 25% tariffs on automobiles and 50% tariffs on metals.
• FreightWaves puts US refrigerated road freight rejections at 21.44%, with the greatest pressure in the northwest.
• HMM has ordered eight 13,000 TEU containerships for its Far East, India and Mediterranean service from 2029.
• Antwerp-Bruges is recovering container volumes, but laden containers fell 1.3% while empties rose 11.7%.
• Air capacity from China to Europe requires four to seven days’ advance booking and rates remain high.
• Air Canada Cargo will launch two weekly freighter services between Toronto and Amsterdam on 29 October and raise its surcharge.
• Sicily has suspended its truck stoppage, but Calabria will maintain blockades until 27 October over diesel costs.
• The South Korean Arctic trial reached Felixstowe in around 20 days, although it carried only 737 laden TEU.

⚖️ TARIFFS AND TRADE POLICY

Mexico seeks lower US tariffs before December

The figure: 25% on Mexican automobiles and 50% on steel and aluminium

Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said on 20 October that he expects a US response before year-end on reducing sectoral tariffs. Mexico considers the steel levy unjustified because the United States maintains a bilateral surplus in that product.

There is no agreement or closing date. The statement confirms that negotiations are continuing, but does not alter the applicable rates or resolve uncertainty over the USMCA review.

Why it matters: suppliers of European components to Mexican plants exporting to the United States may face lower orders or changes in the origin requirements imposed on suppliers. Under DDP United States, the seller assumes clearance and duties; under DAP, CPT or CIP, these fall on the US buyer or importer. The identity of the importer of record remains relevant before prices are fixed.

What to watch: whether Washington agrees to extend to North American content the discount mechanism applied to Mexican automobiles.

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📊 FREIGHT RATES AND MARKET SIGNALS

Maersk adds 250 dollars on western Mediterranean-US services

Why it matters: the surcharge affects all container sizes from Spain and other western Mediterranean origins to the United States and Canada. Under CIF, CFR, CPT or CIP, it is initially contracted by the seller; under FOB or FCA, the main-carriage cost falls on the buyer. December departures will face higher transport costs during the validity period of the surcharge.

• The PSS will take effect on 1 December 2026 and remain in force until further notice.
• Maersk will apply the same amount to 20-, 40- and 45-foot containers, regardless of type.
• The carrier says it will collect the surcharge at origin unless the booking establishes another payment condition.

What to watch: whether other carriers replicate the PSS on the transatlantic corridor before December.

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One in five refrigerated truckloads is rejected in the United States

The figure: 21.44% refrigerated freight rejection rate on 20 October

FreightWaves SONAR’s refrigerated transport tender-rejection index remains around 21%, after reaching a 22.13% peak on 17 September. The overall full-truckload index stood at 13.9%, despite weekly volumes falling by around 2%.

Pressure is concentrated in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest because of apple, potato and onion harvests and protein movements ahead of Thanksgiving.

Why it matters: this affects food importers requiring refrigerated collections in the United States and exporters quoting inland delivery. Refrigerated equipment and loading windows become material constraints before confirming DAP or DDP sales.

What to watch: seasonal November demand may shift pressure from rejection rates to spot prices.

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🚢 OCEAN SHIPPING