Weekly freight report · Week 41 · 2026
Ocean freight rates in October 2026 open with China's Golden Week under way and two markets moving in opposite directions: Asia-Europe has now fallen for 12 consecutive weeks, while the transpacific remains at its highest level since mid-2022. Carrier schedule reliability has dropped to a three-year low, the Rhine has hit a record low and air cargo pricing remains elevated despite falling volumes.
Key takeaways of the week
- Drewry's WCI eases 1%. The composite index stands at USD 4,434 per 40ft container, dragged down by Asia-Europe (Shanghai-Genoa −3% to USD 3,702; Shanghai-Rotterdam −2% to USD 3,399).
- Asia-Europe falls for a 12th week. Flexport puts the decline since early July at close to 30% to Northern Europe and close to 40% to the Mediterranean; carriers have announced increases for the second half of October.
- The transpacific holds firm. Shanghai-New York rose 1% to USD 10,428 and Shanghai-Los Angeles was stable at USD 7,835; according to Flexport, rates are at their highest level since mid-2022.
- Schedule reliability drops to 49.9%. This is the lowest level since September 2022 (August figure cited by Flexport), driven by congestion at Asian ports.
- Air cargo: lower volumes, higher prices. WorldACD reports chargeable weight down 4% week on week and pricing up 2% (+27% year on year); Drewry's airfreight index reached USD 4/kg in September.
- Trade policy on the move. U.S. restrictions on certain Canadian goods have applied since 29 September, tariff cuts for 77 Chinese categories require a prior Section 301 review, and a new pact requires disclosure of the country where steel was melted.
1.Trade policy and customs
SourcesFlexport · Drewry
According to Flexport, U.S. restrictions on a range of Canadian goods took effect on 29 September. Entries filed under the affected HTS codes are rejected outright, with CBP's system returning the message "HTS Not Allowed for Country of Origin". The list includes motorcycles over 800cc (HTS 8711.50.00), whey, molasses, non-alcoholic beer, and beer, wine, brandy and rum sold direct to consumer. Bulk alcohol in large vats and casks remains exempt.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed that planned tariff cuts for 77 categories of Chinese imports classified as non-sensitive cannot proceed until the Section 301 public input process is complete. The list focuses on consumer goods: small household appliances, home textiles, children's products, sporting goods, games and decor. A White House release pairs it with a parallel list of U.S. products China could consider for reciprocal tariff treatment, with no timeline or rates set by either government.
Steel-importing economies representing 55% of world steel trade will require exporters to identify the country where the steel was melted and poured, rather than where it was last processed or finished. Participants include the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa and sixteen European countries. The measure targets transshipment used to avoid origin-specific duties.
Drewry notes that the extended U.S.-China trade truce could support a rebound in U.S.-bound demand after Golden Week.
Key figures
- Restrictions on Canadian goods in force since 29 September
- 77 Chinese categories pending Section 301 review
- Steel pact: 55% of world trade with melt-and-pour disclosure
Market reading
Flexport does not expect near-term tariff relief for the 77 Chinese categories, as comment periods of this kind have historically run for months, and advises steel importers to prepare for new documentation requirements and check whether they can trace melt-and-pour data through their supply chains.
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