What moves your costs, your transit times and your cargo today.

THE DAY IN 30 SECONDS

• VLSFO has reached $886 per tonne in Singapore, 74% above its level before the conflict with Iran.
• A gradual return to Suez and 200,000 TEU of new capacity are putting downward pressure on Asia-Europe freight rates.
• VLCCs loading in the Gulf of Oman have exceeded $1 million per day following twelve attacks on tankers since 29 September.
• Spain has capped rail fuel aid at 70% of additional costs and requires declarations to be submitted before 28 February 2027.
• From 30 November, Maersk will not load Australian and New Zealand exports whose documentation has not been completed on time.
• Saldanha has halted a terminal handling more than 50 million tonnes of iron ore annually for 16 days of maintenance.
• European truck tolls have risen by nearly 20% since 2023, with further distance-based systems due in 2027.
• US carriers are rejecting around 14% of contracted loads, despite freight volumes rising only 9% over three years.
• Singapore is processing new powers to impose cybersecurity requirements on critical port infrastructure and services.
• ImportGenius estimates a gap exceeding $100 billion between Chinese declared exports and US recorded imports.

🌍 REGULATION AND COMPLIANCE

Singapore prepares port cybersecurity controls

On 6 October, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore introduced a legal amendment that would allow it to designate important information infrastructures, impose cybersecurity requirements and order measures to maintain port continuity. The proposal also expands its inspection and document-verification powers; Parliament will debate the second reading in November 2026.

Why it matters: The proposal does not yet create an immediate obligation for shippers, but it signals additional controls over carriers, terminals and digital providers at one of the world’s largest transhipment hubs. Companies exchanging operational data directly with Singapore-based providers may face new security and information requirements.

What to watch: The text emerging from the second reading and the systems or services designated as important infrastructure.

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🚪 CUSTOMS

ImportGenius identifies a $100 billion discrepancy

ImportGenius says it has identified a gap exceeding $100 billion between exports China declares to the United States and Chinese imports recorded by US authorities. The company cites tariff optimisation as a possible explanation, not a proven cause, and notes that nearly half of US imports by value arrive by air without public manifests equivalent to those available for ocean freight.

Why it matters: Discrepancies involving value, origin, seller and shipper increase the risk of scrutiny where supply chains include triangulation or invoice changes. This is particularly relevant for US imports and for re-exports of Chinese goods from the EU.

What to watch: Progress of the Manifest Modernization Act, a legislative proposal intended to expand public information on air cargo.

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📊 FREIGHT RATES AND MARKET SIGNALS

VLSFO rises 74%, increasing the cost of every port call

The figure: $886 per tonne of VLSFO in Singapore, compared with $509 on 27 February

Why it matters: A 1,000-tonne stem now costs around $377,000 more than before the conflict with Iran; a 3,000-tonne stem adds more than $1.1 million. Under FOB, the buyer is exposed to freight and fuel adjustments; under CFR or CIF, transport is the seller’s responsibility, although the surcharge may ultimately be incorporated into the price. BAF clauses and the validity period of each offer are becoming more significant when comparing quotations.

• VLSFO has risen 74% and HSFO 77% since 27 February, to $886 and $764 per tonne respectively.
• VLSFO reached a peak of $1,120.50 per tonne in Singapore on 13 March and has not returned to pre-conflict levels.
• Supply lead times in Singapore have exceeded ten days, while Fujairah has faced a lack of VLSFO available for prompt delivery.

What to watch: Physical fuel availability, as a fall in crude prices will not automatically or equally quickly feed through to bunker prices.

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