What moves your costs, your transit times and your cargo today.

Good morning. The partial return to Suez is adding effective capacity and containing freight rates, but attacks in Saudi Arabia underline that this normalisation remains reversible. 2027 negotiations should not treat as permanent a risk premium that still depends on military decisions.

THE DAY IN 30 SECONDS

• Container ship transits through Suez have exceeded half of pre-crisis levels, although Houthi attacks are raising risk again.
• Freightos puts Asia-Mediterranean at 3,800 dollars per FEU, up 7% week on week and about 70% above 2025.
• Riyadh airport will remain closed at least until 17 October after the attacks, with flights and cargo cancelled.
• QatarEnergy is using older LNG carriers and restricted operations to restore LNG exports disrupted by the Gulf war.
• Georgia Ports has secured a permit for a 2.3 billion dollar terminal that will add 3.5 million TEU a year.
• Low Rhine water levels are increasing barge waiting times and could add more than 1,500 euros per container to inland transport.
• Italy has given preliminary approval to raise the age for professional truck and bus driving to 70, with biennial checks from age 68.
• The United States reports a 14.17% contracted-load rejection rate, while its intermodal rail traffic is up 10.4% year on year.
• Singapore has published its technical standard for ammonia supply and will open automated digital bunkering trials in November.

📊 FREIGHT RATES AND MARKET SIGNALS

Suez cools freight rates, but risk returns to 2027 contracts

The figure: 3,800 dollars/FEU between Asia and the Mediterranean, up 7% in the past week

Why it matters: rates remain around 70% above October 2025 despite the increase in effective capacity provided by Suez. Under CIF and CFR, the seller contracts the main carriage; under FOB or FCA, the buyer bears it. Annual proposals should be assessed against a scenario allowing price revision if the shorter route becomes established.

• Freightos puts both Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean above 3,000 dollars/FEU.
• Asia-North Europe remained stable during the week, while Asia-Mediterranean broke its downward trend with a 7% increase.
• The consultancy attributes downward pressure since July to the end of peak season and the gradual return of services through the Red Sea.

What to watch: new attacks on commercial vessels would remove effective capacity just as 2027 contract negotiations are under way.

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🚢 OCEAN SHIPPING

Suez recovers more than half of pre-crisis traffic

Why it matters: shorter voyages free up vessels and reduce fuel consumption, but can also concentrate arrivals at European ports as ships routed through Suez converge with those sent around the Cape. Revised estimated arrival dates may affect inland transport and warehousing requirements.

• Weekly capacity in transit during the first two weeks of October reached its highest level since the start of the Red Sea disruptions.
• BIMCO’s calculation is based on Clarksons Research data and reflects deployed capacity, not cargo actually carried.
• The recovery remains partial and depends on carriers maintaining services through the corridor despite deteriorating regional security.

What to watch: the evolution of Houthi attacks and any new service suspensions could return traffic to the Cape of Good Hope.

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Qatar uses older LNG carriers to restore exports

QatarEnergy has begun changing its LNG operations after its shipments were virtually halted in late August following an attack on one of its LNG carriers outside Hormuz. Measures include using the Al Rayyan, one of the oldest vessels in its fleet, for limited operations in an environment that remains high risk.

Why it matters: this is a partial recovery rather than a normalisation of supply. Buyers of gas- or energy-intensive products should retain room for price and transit-time changes resulting from a further disruption to Qatari LNG.

What to watch: whether Qatar can sustain regular departures without further incidents or again limits cargoes.

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