What moves your costs, your transit times and your cargo today.
Good morning. The risk today is not a general lack of capacity, but that available capacity is arriving unevenly: more services are returning through Suez, while congestion, blank sailings and port mobilisation continue to sustain costs and transit times. Air cargo demand is also growing faster than European supply.
THE DAY IN 30 SECONDS
- Carriers are returning to the Red Sea, but eight planned blank sailings on Asia-Europe continue to pressure space and rates.
- USB puts the number of ports taking part in today’s international mobilisation at more than 110, with uneven local effects.
- IATA reports global air cargo growth of 7.7%, while European airline capacity falls 1.6%.
- Maersk removes its PSS for 40- and 45-foot containers between Europe and South Africa, but retains $225 for 20-foot equipment.
- The United Kingdom will withdraw duty relief for imports worth up to £135 by October 2028 at the latest.
- The United States opens 180 days of negotiations on robotics and industrial machinery without imposing new tariffs for now.
- FedEx will cut domestic capacity by between 20% and 40% in Italy, the United Kingdom and France.
- CMA CGM launches a weekly 108-TEU rail service between the port of Mombasa and the Nairobi inland depot.
TODAY IN FIGURES
⚖️ TARIFFS AND TRADE POLICY
US opens 180 days of negotiations on machinery
The figure: 180 days to report on the negotiations
The White House concluded on 28 October that imports of robotics, industrial machinery, parts and components threaten US national security. The proclamation orders negotiations with trading partners, but does not yet establish tariffs, quotas or charges.
Why it matters: the measure affects a sector relevant to global exports of capital goods, automation equipment and components to the United States. If a tariff is subsequently imposed, it would initially be borne by the seller under DDP; under DAP, CIP or CPT, it would normally be paid by the US importer. Commercial offers may need to separate the price of the machine, components and any future duty.
What to watch: the tariff headings the United States includes and whether the EU secures an exemption or a specific quota.
🚪 CUSTOMS
United Kingdom to withdraw £135 import relief
The figure: £135, the current relief threshold that will be removed
HMRC updated its low-value import reform on 28 October. The measure will subject consignments worth up to £135 to customs duties and introduce new data requirements, controls and the role of a jointly liable fiscal representative.
Its entry into force will be set through secondary legislation, but must occur by October 2028 at the latest. Operational requirements and the final declaration system have yet to be defined.
Why it matters: businesses selling directly to UK consumers will need to adapt pricing, product data and collection systems. Under DDP, the seller assumes clearance and duties; under DAP, these are normally paid by the buyer, although future obligations for sellers and platforms could change that process. Product lines dependent on the current relief will face a structural cost change.
What to watch: who will be required to lodge the declaration, when a fiscal representative becomes mandatory and how sales through platforms will be treated.
📊 FREIGHT RATES AND MARKET SIGNALS
Return to the Red Sea has yet to lower Asia-Europe costs
Why it matters: the shorter Suez route is not automatically translating into lower prices or more reliable schedules. Under CIF and CFR, the seller contracts carriage; under FOB or FCA, the buyer does. The actual route, planned blank sailings and transhipment allowance remain material to delivery timing.
- Alphaliner counts 24 of 46 direct services operated by the ten largest carriers as already using the Red Sea.
- Freightos puts Asia–North Europe at $3,551 per FEU, up 3%, and Asia–Mediterranean at $4,252, up 8%.
- Drewry expects eight cancelled Asia-Europe sailings next week, compared with two in the current week.
What to watch: normalised voyages in both directions and lower destination congestion would be needed to put meaningful downward pressure on rates.
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